Break-Even & Across Price and Yield
Maps the frontier for corn
Most tools fix one variable. This draws the whole price × yield break-even frontier — price = total cost ÷ yield — and plots your expected scenario in the profit (green) or loss (red) region, with the price and yield each must reach if the other disappoints.
Enter your enterprise budget
Runs entirely in your browser — nothing is uploaded.
Green = profit, red = loss; the black curve is break-even. The dot is your scenario; the dashed line is its distance to break-even.
Next: price can fall to $4.15 $/bu (a $0.35 cushion) or yield to 184 bu/ac before you hit break-even. Lock in at least the break-even price with a forward contract or put-option floor to protect this margin.
profit/ac = yield × price − total cost. Break-even curve: price = total cost ÷ yield (Iowa State Ag Decision Maker A1-19). Contribution margin = revenue − variable cost. Safety margin = profit ÷ total cost.
Break-even matrix — key facts
- Profit / acre
- yield × price − total cost
- Total cost
- fixed cost + variable cost
- Break-even price
- total cost ÷ yield
- Break-even yield
- total cost ÷ price
- Operating BE price
- variable cost ÷ yield
- Break-even curve
- price = cost ÷ yield (a hyperbola)
- Contribution margin
- revenue − variable cost
- Safety margin
- profit ÷ total cost (×100%)
- Comfortable margin
- ≥ 15% over total cost
- Worked corn example
- 200 bu × $4.50 = $900/ac → +$70/ac
- Source
- Iowa State Ag Decision Maker A1-19
- Privacy
- Runs in your browser; nothing uploaded
Crop cost-of-production presets & their break-even price
Representative per-acre enterprise-budget cost splits with the break-even price at the typical yield. Editable defaults — overwrite them with your own cost records.
| Crop | Fixed $/ac | Variable $/ac | Total $/ac | Typ. yield | Typ. price | BE price | Profit/ac |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn (Corn Belt) | $360 | $470 | $830 | 200 bu/ac | $4.5 $/bu | $4.15 | +$70 |
| Soybean | $250 | $250 | $500 | 58 bu/ac | $11.5 $/bu | $8.62 | +$167 |
| Wheat (HRW) | $150 | $170 | $320 | 50 bu/ac | $6.5 $/bu | $6.4 | +$5 |
| Spring wheat | $175 | $215 | $390 | 55 bu/ac | $7 $/bu | $7.09 | −$5 |
| Grain sorghum | $140 | $190 | $330 | 95 bu/ac | $4.2 $/bu | $3.47 | +$69 |
| Rice (long grain) | $420 | $690 | $1,110 | 75 cwt/ac | $15.5 $/cwt | $14.8 | +$53 |
| Cotton (irrigated) | $400 | $720 | $1,120 | 1,300 lb/ac | $0.78 $/lb | $0.86 | −$106 |
| Canola | $165 | $205 | $370 | 2,000 lb/ac | $0.22 $/lb | $0.19 | +$70 |
| Peanut (irrigated) | $480 | $720 | $1,200 | 4,500 lb/ac | $0.24 $/lb | $0.27 | −$120 |
| Sunflower | $130 | $175 | $305 | 1,700 lb/ac | $0.24 $/lb | $0.18 | +$103 |
| Malt barley | $160 | $195 | $355 | 85 bu/ac | $5.5 $/bu | $4.18 | +$113 |
| Potato (irrigated) | $1,300 | $2,400 | $3,700 | 450 cwt/ac | $9.5 $/cwt | $8.22 | +$575 |
Sources: Iowa State University Extension Ag Decision Maker (Files A1-19, A1-20), Kansas State & University of Minnesota crop enterprise budgets. Figures are representative planning values, not a single-year quote.
Why one break-even number hides the real risk
A single break-even price answers only half the question. Price and yield trade off against each other: a thin yield can still pay if the price is strong, and a soft price can still pay on a bumper crop. The pair that exactly covers cost is the curve price = total cost ÷ yield, and every point above-right of it is profit while every point below-left is a loss. Seeing the whole frontier — not one number — is what tells you how exposed your plan really is.
This tool plots your expected 200 bu/ac at $4.5/bu as a dot on the price × yield plane and measures its distance to the break-even curve. It reports the break-even price at your yield ($4.15/bu in the corn example), the break-even yield at your price (184 bu/ac), the contribution margin, the operating break-even, and the safety-margin percent. Use it to set a forward-contract floor, decide whether an enterprise is worth planting, and stress-test a price or yield shortfall. Pair it with the Enterprise Mix Gross-Margin Ranking and Machinery Rightsizing & Timeliness tools for a full farm-finance picture.
How to read the break-even matrix
- 1
Enter your costs
Pick a crop preset, then overwrite the fixed and variable cost per acre with your own. Total cost = fixed + variable.
- 2
Enter the scenario
Put in the yield you expect per acre and the price you expect to receive per unit.
- 3
Read the plane
The black curve is break-even. If your dot sits in the green region you profit; in the red region you lose. The dashed line shows the distance to the edge.
- 4
Read the cushions
See how low price can fall at your yield, and how low yield can fall at your price, before you reach break-even.
- 5
Act on the margin
If you clear cost, lock at least the break-even price with a contract or option. If not, cut variable cost, lift the yield target, or change the plan.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a break-even price × yield matrix?+
It is the full frontier of every price and yield combination that exactly covers your cost of production, instead of fixing one variable. The break-even locus is the curve price = total cost ÷ yield: any (price, yield) point above-right of it makes a profit, any point below-left is a loss. Plotting your expected scenario on this plane shows at a glance whether you are in the green region and how far from the edge.
How do I calculate break-even price?+
Break-even price = total cost per acre ÷ expected yield per acre. With a $830/ac total cost and a 200 bu/ac yield, the break-even price is 830 ÷ 200 = $4.15/bu. Sell above $4.15 and the crop is profitable at that yield; sell below it and you lose money. The tool computes this live for your numbers.
How do I calculate break-even yield?+
Break-even yield = total cost per acre ÷ expected price. At $830/ac cost and a $4.50/bu price, the break-even yield is 830 ÷ 4.50 = 184.4 bu/ac. Produce more than that and you profit at that price; produce less and you lose. Price and yield trade off along the same break-even curve.
What is the difference between operating and full break-even?+
The full (or total) break-even uses every cost — fixed plus variable — and tells you whether the enterprise pays for itself completely. The operating (or variable) break-even uses only variable cost; it is the price below which you should not even harvest because you would not cover cash operating costs. The tool reports both: operating break-even price = variable cost ÷ yield.
Is my corn profitable at 200 bu/ac and $4.50/bu?+
With a typical Corn Belt budget of $360 fixed + $470 variable = $830/ac, revenue is 200 × $4.50 = $900/ac, leaving $70/ac profit — an 8.4% safety margin over cost. That is positive but thin: a small drop in price or yield pushes it into the loss region. The tool plots exactly where that scenario sits relative to the break-even curve.
What is the contribution margin?+
Contribution margin per acre = revenue − variable cost. It is what is left to cover fixed costs and then profit. As long as contribution margin is positive you are at least covering your cash operating costs and helping pay overhead, even if total profit is negative — which is why a struggling crop is often still worth harvesting.
What is a safety margin or margin of safety?+
Safety margin = profit ÷ total cost, expressed as a percent. It measures how far above break-even your expected scenario sits. We treat a margin of 15% or more as comfortable, 0–15% as thin (clears cost but vulnerable to a dip), and below 0% as a loss. It is the single number that says how much cushion you have.
Why is the break-even curve a hyperbola, not a straight line?+
Because revenue = yield × price, the set of (price, yield) pairs giving a fixed revenue (equal to total cost) is price = cost ÷ yield — a rectangular hyperbola. As yield rises, the price needed to break even falls, and vice versa. That curved frontier is exactly why a yield shortfall can be offset by a higher price, and the matrix shows the trade-off.
How do I read the green and red regions?+
The plane has yield on the horizontal axis and price on the vertical axis. Everything above and to the right of the black break-even curve is the green profit region; everything below and to the left is the red loss region. Your expected scenario is the coloured dot, and the dashed line drops to the curve to show its distance to break-even.
What price do I need if my yield disappoints?+
Read it straight off the curve: the break-even price rises as yield falls. The tool reports the break-even price at your expected yield, and you can lower the yield input to see the price you would then need. This is the core marketing question — it tells you the minimum forward-contract price to protect cost if the crop comes up short.
What yield do I need if the price disappoints?+
Break-even yield = total cost ÷ price, so a lower price demands a higher yield. The tool shows the break-even yield at your expected price; drop the price input to see how many more bushels (or pounds) you would need to still cover cost. If that yield is beyond your realistic ceiling, the price is below your floor.
How should I split fixed and variable costs?+
Variable (operating) costs change with what you grow this year — seed, fertiliser, chemical, fuel, drying, crop insurance, operating interest. Fixed (ownership/overhead) costs you incur regardless — land charge or rent, machinery depreciation and interest, property tax, insurance, general overhead. The split matters because the operating break-even uses only variable cost while the full break-even uses both.
Where do the default cost numbers come from?+
The crop presets are representative per-acre cost splits synthesised from Iowa State University Extension Ag Decision Maker, Kansas State, and Minnesota extension enterprise budgets. They are typical planning figures, not a quote for any single year or farm — always overwrite them with your own actual cost records for a real decision.
How do I use this with a forward contract or option?+
Use the break-even price at your realistic yield as your minimum acceptable sale price. If a forward contract or a put-option floor is offered at or above that break-even price, locking it in protects your cost of production. Pair this tool with a crop put-option price-floor calculator to compare the net floor an option gives against the forward bid.
Is this calculation precise?+
The math is exact for the numbers you enter — every figure follows from profit = yield × price − total cost. The accuracy of the answer depends entirely on the accuracy of your cost, yield and price inputs, which are themselves estimates. Treat the result as a solid planning and marketing figure, and update it as your real costs and harvest become known.